Aluminum prices within the strong outside the weak logic

2016/11/29 16:58:41

Since last December, the domestic aluminum price trend has been a steady slow rebound in late March also hit a new high. At the same time, LME aluminum prices in the March 7 record high of $ 1,605 / ton after the Guaitou down, and in March 24th hit the lowest since January 27 record. I believe that the supply of growth, capacity regulation, cost transmission, consumption structure, and other internal and external differences in aluminum led to the emergence of "strong and weak" characteristics.

Supply level: the domestic phase of tight

First, the domestic aluminum smelter cut production led to reduced supply, and resumption of production than expected slow. The second half of 2015 to cut production to a certain scale. National Bureau of Statistics data show that electrolytic aluminum production in the first two months of 2016 compared with the same period in 2015 decreased by 7.7%, down to 4.55 million tons; survey data show that electrolytic aluminum production in January-February 2016 fell 2% to 498 million tons . 2015 - March 2016, the cumulative shutdown of electrolytic aluminum production capacity of about 4.5 million tons / year. From the actual resumption of production point of view, 1-2 months of resumption of the smelter less, in March began to gradually increase the resumption of production. For example, Shandong letter made an annual production capacity of 300,000 tons of electrolytic aluminum project by the end of February only output, Guangxi Baigong Aluminum an annual production capacity of 100,000 tons of electrolytic aluminum production in March.

Second, the new production capacity is also mostly in the second quarter and second half. Antaike statistics show that in 2016, China's new electrolytic aluminum production capacity of about 300 million tons / year, which can be put into operation during the year about 1.5 million tons / year. The current capacity of the new production enterprises are: Huaze Aluminum plans to put into operation in April 70,000 tons of new electrolytic aluminum project, Tianshan Aluminum plans to put into operation in September 200,000 tons of electrolytic aluminum project, Qingyi Industrial Project in September put into operation 45,000 tons of high Purity electrolytic aluminum project.

Again, in January 2016 a lot of aluminum smelting from the production of aluminum more, less aluminum ingot, making the supply of aluminum ingot phase is tight. Aluminum water can be directly provided to the surrounding processing enterprises, or smelting upstream and downstream integration process in the use of processing links, saving transportation costs.

Finally, a lot of aluminum ingots are cast into aluminum rods, passing some excess pressure in a disguised form, aluminum rods are temporarily stored. Data show that in March Xinjiang Xinjiang aluminum rod production capacity to reach 850,000 tons in 2016 is expected to produce 96 million tons of aluminum rods. As the development of downstream electrolytic aluminum processing plant products with cost advantages, so more and more electrolytic aluminum smelter development of aluminum rod products.

From the inventory point of view, during the Spring Festival this year, domestic aluminum social stock growth over the same period last year slow. Data show that on February 29, 2016, Shanghai, Wuxi and Foshan and other major areas of aluminum ingot social stock of about 959,000 tons, lower than the same period last year 99 million tons. March 28, the main areas of social stock of aluminum ingots fell to 87.9 million tons.

Cost level: short-term slightly upward

Electrolytic aluminum production costs, including raw material costs (alumina, cryolite, etc.), energy costs (electricity, etc.), labor costs. January-February 2016 raw material costs due to tight supply prices of alumina prices have increased. Data show that in November 2015 to the end of February 2016, China's alumina smelter production capacity has been reduced to 9.5 million tons. While 98.5% of alumina prices from 2016 at the beginning of 1605 yuan / ton average price rose to March 30 of 1895 yuan / ton, or 18%. In terms of power cost, the average cash cost of the aluminum smelting industry has risen from 10,850 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year to 3 yuan / ton due to the fact that the smelter-owned power plants need to pay a special fund for overcapacity, which is estimated to affect the cost of electrolytic aluminum by about 500 yuan / Month of 11560 yuan / ton

Consumption level: weak overseas markets, domestic consumption pick up

As the majority of overseas aluminum used in automotive and other transportation industries, Europe and the United States and other developed countries, manufacturing PMI and automobile production can be used as a measure of overseas consumption of aluminum heating two main indicators. Data show that since last November, the US ISM manufacturing PMI continued to decline, and below the 50's ups and downs of the watershed until February only slightly rebounded to 49.5, but still below the 50 level of ups and downs, which means that the United States Manufacturing growth is sluggish and consumption of aluminum is slowing.

China's largest area of aluminum consumption or in the construction of aluminum, accounting for about 38.5% of total consumption, and the real estate industry is closely related. So in 2016 China's real estate investment, new home starts area, construction area rose year-on-year growth has brought the consumption of building aluminum to pick up. Automobile, the traditional Chinese automobile production and sales into the downhill, the new energy vehicle development momentum is good, and new energy vehicles in the automotive light of the use of aluminum instead of galvanized and steel consumption there will be potential for growth.